Climbing the Mountain

A week ago Scott posted a 1500 word analysis of the mountain I have invited others to climb with me. As usual, he provided many useful insights that should help us to navigate this climb successfully. After having a week to begin to digest his analysis I am finally ready to begin to address some of the issues he raised. Before I do so I would like to make it clear that I never believed that this would be a simple undertaking and I hope that nobody else thinks so either.

Scott begins his analysis by addressing the question of what causes voter apathy. I saw 3 factors in his analysis that contribute to higher voter apathy in Utah: age – the propensity for people under 25 to generally not be active in politics combined with Utah having a higher percentage of younger voters among our population; a consistent supermajority – incentive goes down whether there is no hope of winning or virtually no chance of losing; and lack of adequate information. There is little we can do about age except to reach out to young people and encourage them to be informed and involved. (It was the questions of my teenage neice that finally pushed me into taking some action.) The consistent supermajority in this state makes it so that I am more inclined to vote for Democratic candidates than Republican candidates. I will only vote for candidates I can support based on their positions and qualifications, but if both parties offer such a candidate I will go with the Democrat every time. The lack of adequate information is what this group is most directly hoping to address which is why it cannot afford to be limited to a website and a blog-cloud. We need to do things that will catch the attention of all citizens whether they use the internet actively or not. The information that we provide must be information from candidates for voter consumption as well as information from voters for use by candidates and elected officials.

Scott also identifies the obstacles we face such as lack of time in our busy world and the challenges of organizing diverse people. Scott points out the potential for duplicating the efforts of other groups such as Project Vote Smart (PVS) and The League of Women Voters. These are very real issues to consider. My goal has been to minimize the demands that we make of those who participate and find ways to get maximum benefit from those things we do ask of them. A good example of such an approach is Downsize D.C. which has made it very easy for people to participate in politics by providing information on the subjects they are trying to address and allowing people to write to their senators and representatives with one link. (Click the link, add your personal comments and click "Send" to deliver messages to all your legislative leaders at once.) By working in tandem with existing groups such as those listed above we can have a greater impact in our initial efforts. One difference I see between what I hope to accomplish and what PVS is trying to do is that I want to focus on our one small state. I believe that the nationwide efforts of PVS help to perpetuate the top first mentality that is a root of many of our problems. I would encourage anyone who is so inclined to support and assist the efforts of PVS but their focus should not be confused with what I hope to develop.

Anything But Neutral should focus on gathering information from candidates here in Utah and sharing that information as widely as possible As much as possible, let the candidates speak for themselves and encourage them to speak about issues rather than getting too focused on parties, associations, and opponent bashing that pervade national politics. This is why I called for people to ask questions of the candidates locally and post their answers before election day. I know we’re pretty late this cycle, but hopefully we can do something now just to get some momentum before we enter the post-election burnout period. After election day I will quickly share my ideas of how we can make a difference in our political process between elections – hopefully without burdening our already busy lives too heavily.

I wholeheartedly agree with Scott’s conclusion:

I encourage others to get involved and help in this effort. But let’s not delude ourselves. We are fighting against significant disincentives to political involvement. Simply providing information and discussion isn’t going to overcome that.

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Ask the Candidates (and Share Their Answers)

In an effort to not lose all inertia, I am publicly inviting anyone who has any interest in Anything But Neutral to choose a political race in Utah and ask the candidates of that race a few questions of their own choosing. When you get responses (or by Friday, October 31st even if not all the candidates have responded) post the responses you receive somewhere that people can read the responses – preferable somewhere that people are free to share their own thoughts after reading the answers. I have asked the following questions from the candidates in House District 20:

  1. In your opinion, what is the most important job of a state legislator?
  2. What is the most important challenge or issue for the state of Utah?
  3. What is the most important challenge or issue for House District 20?
  4. Based on the best information you have, what ideas do you have to tackle the important issue(s) you identified in questions 2 and 3?
  5. What is the most important political task for voters to undertake?

Most of the people who have expressed interest have their own blogs where they could post such answers. Some examples of others who have done this include Utah Rattler (House 20) and Thad Van Ry (Senate 23). If you prefer not to post the answers on your own site I would be willing to post answers for other races.

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Short Term Uncertainty

I will be spending most of next week at a conference at Disney World so I don’t know how much I’ll be posting (little if any, I suspect). Besides that, I will be trying to take some concrete action to shape the group I talked about to encourage more widespread participation in civil political dialog. I’m thinking it will be called "Anything but Neutral."

Before I go silent for a few days I thought I should share the most accurate economic news I’ve read in weeks.

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Reason To Be Anti-Incumbent

I found this little exchange to be insightful from Congressman Bishop:

. . . the two 1st District candidates snapped at each other, with Bowen accusing Bishop of taking $26,000 in the past four months from the radioactive-waste-storage company.

"I did not take $26,000, I took $28,000," Bishop fired back. "And that’s not company money, I can’t take that. It’s from individuals who work for EnergySolutions. And it’s not my biggest source of revenue."

Only someone who is comfortable in Washington D.C. could swallow the idea that dozens of individuals from EnergySolutions contributing $28,000 to the campaign is not a significant endorsement from the company as a whole or that they would do so without believing that the Congressman was working in the interests of the company that pays them.

I wondered who the biggest source of revenue was for Rep. Bishop and I found this list at OpenSecrets. It has Energy Solutions as the top source of revenue although it lists under $17,000 so it must not be current.

I wish I had all the facts, but I have enough to choose. If Rep. Bishop believes what he said then he’s not the kind of man I want representing me. If he does not believe what he said, then the fact that he said it means he is not the kind of man I want representing me.

I am definitely voting for Morgan Bowen – worst case scenario is that I’ll want to replace him in 2010. I’d say there’s more than a 50% chance that I’ll still want him in 2010.

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Real Capitalists

My reaction to Obi wan’s claim that "pro-capitalist conservatives have pushed for governmental intervention into our capital markets" was that nobody who supported the bailout has any claim to being a capitalist. I find that my position is much more clearly stated by Judy Shelton in the Wall Street Journal:

Honest capitalism requires the following:

Free-market clarity Consumers must be able to properly judge the inherent value of goods brought to the marketplace if markets are to function properly;

Monetary integrity Monetary-policy decisions that "stimulate" the economy by issuing too many claims to real production, or "constrict" the economy by reducing the amount of available purchasing power or capital investment, utterly confound the notion of stable money.

Financial validity What turns the reputable practice of granting credits to deserving borrowers into a high-stakes casino game where the biggest stacks of chips are held by speculators working for the world’s largest banks and investment houses? . . . Exotic financial derivatives that gamble on the anomalies of the global economy — currency movements, interest-rate disparities, governance incongruities — mock the very concept of "investment" to generate future higher returns from production.

Regulatory responsibility Rule of law is a core requirement for civil society; without it, anarchy reigns. Government regulation does not create wealth, but it is a necessary condition to provide the stable and predictable environment that permits buyers and sellers to carry out economic and financial transactions with confidence.

Entrepreneurial opportunity Much of the resentment felt by citizens toward the massive investment companies who peddled bad government paper, and the craven politicians who promoted the practice, stems from the perception that capitalism is rigged toward the most powerful. When the owner of a small retail outlet or medium-sized service firm gets into financial trouble — who steps in to help? . . . Equal access to credit is sacrificed to the overwhelming appetite of big business — especially when government skews the terms in favor of its friends.

(emphasis added)

This is what I was trying to say in Financial Foundations Exposed and which makes me reject the notion that capitalists pushed for intervention in our markets. I admit that many of those pushing for that intervention claim to be capitalists, but some of them make the claim as a lie and others make the claim in ignorance. No real capitalist could back the bailout because real capitalists recognize that there is value to be had in failure.

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A Budgetary Hat-Trick

Jason shared a link to Budget Hero and I had to go take a look. If the game is to be believed, all is not yet lost in the quest to get a balanced budget without abandoning all vestiges of the social safety net that we have been spinning for the last 80 years.

I managed – with a little effort – to balance the budget, increase security, achieve energy independence, and eliminate government waste at the same time so that the budget bust date was pushed back from 2033 to sometime after 2070. I don’t know how accurate the game’s assumptions are, but it really gets you thinking.

Go see if you can achieve your goals (you get to pick your own goals) as a budget hero.

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Financial Foundations Exposed

News reports related to the fluxuations of the stock market are not surprising or inconsistent, but when I stop to consider what they say I find that they are either disturbing or based on faulty assumptions. This holds true whether we are talking about reports of falling or rising stocks and the report on today’s rally is a good example:

U.S. stocks staged the biggest rally in seven decades on a government plan to buy stakes in banks and a Federal Reserve-led push to flood the global financial system with dollars. . . the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 936 points.

The stocks and stock markets are supposed to give an indication of the value of the companies and economies they relate to. What is it about the plan by the Federal Reserve that makes any company better managed or more successful enough to warrant an 11% increase in value over one day?

The underlying assumption is that the government action is at the root of the deciding factors leading to the investment decisions of professionals and thus it is the hand controlling the puppet of economic production and has the right to interfere in the market as it sees fit. That assumption scares me because if we ever fully accept that premise we open ourselves to more overt government action in the markets. The more blatant the interference we will accept the more arbitrary those actions can safely be until we can find ourselves in an economic 1984 where the government can decide one day that it will give $700 Billion away and buy equity stakes in our financial sector and then the next day it can declare that it has no business interfering with corporate mismanagement and it can’t spare the $700 Billion anyway.

If that assumption is faulty – that government is the driving economic force and the basis for the decisions of investment professionals – then the news reports are misrepresenting the reasons for the rise and fall of stock prices so that we never begin to deal with the real causes of those economic swings, large or small. If professional investors are really deciding that stocks are worth more at the end of the day than they were at the beginning for reasons other than the government intervention then we should be told what indicators are being used to determine that the companies are worth more today than they were yesterday.

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Like Sheep . . .

I have been noticing the various political yard signs popping up as we approach the general election and based on what I have seen I am beginning to think that in Utah, the most politically active non-candidates are almost universally leaning Democratic. Considering that Utah is still expected to heavily favor the Republican tickets at all levels I thought of the phrase from Isaiah to describe Utah politics:

All we like sheep have gone astray; we have turned every one to his own way. ( Isaiah 53:6)

So many people here will not take the time to be civically active and informed, but a small portion of them (50% in a good year) will go to the polls and perform their civic duty of selecting anyone with an R next to their name.

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Rejecting Amendment E

While amendment D looks to close a loophole in the Constitution, Constitutional Amendment E appears to be opening a loophole. I admit that there is potential to increase the funds available for public education if we allow some of those funds to be invested in private company stocks or bonds. The problem is that this amendment provides no guidelines or safeguards to such a practice and therefore the only guarantee that we have from this amendment is that we increase the risk attached to the funds available for public education.

If the legislature wants to take public money and make use of stocks and bonds to increase the value of our tax revenues I could be pursuaded to accept that, but they had better put some safeguards on the ways our public funds are invested in the Constitution, rather than relying on future statutes to define any protective measures – the original prohibition serves to safeguard public money, when making such a large exception we should be sure that there are some limitations in place.

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Supporting Amendment D

With the insertion of only 12 words Constitutional Amendment D would close a technicality which could be used by some enterprising politicians to wreak havoc on the necessary and often too-political process of redistricting. Now is a good time to do it too because, while redistricting is usually little more than adjusting existing district boundaries, our next redistricting will include the creation of a new district (barring some major surprises). Without this amendment, redistricting could be declared invalid if a special session became necessary on a different subject between the time of the census and the next general session. Also, it could be challenged in the event of the U.S. Census Bureau taking longer than expected to process the census results.

This amendment helps to protect the state from adding any more political maneuvering in this important and often partisan process.

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