When to cast a 3rd Party Vote

Disclaimer: I don’t want to tell someone how to vote in any race but I think it’s important for anyone casting an untraditional vote (ie. not selecting between the candidates with any realistic chance of winning) to be very cognizant of the electoral effect of their vote so that they don’t unknowingly produce an effect opposite to what they intended.

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about the effect of third party voting and when it might be appropriate to “throw away your vote” as some people call it or “send a message” as others would frame it. That might seem unusual for someone who lives in a state where the majority of races are already decided before the general election ballots have even been formulated but after decades of thinking about and participating in politics I have come to some solid conclusions on the topic.

The effect of voting for a 3rd Party candidate is that you are allowing those viewers who vote for the major candidates to decide the election without your input. I think the majority of people who contemplate casting 3rd party votes hope to send a message about what candidates, issues, or positions they want to see—which is fine. In the case of races that are anything but competitive this might be exactly the practical effect of casting those votes. On the other hand, for competitive races this message is likely to be overlooked as all the focus is on the final outcome.

When deciding to cast a 3rd party vote in a competitive race you are effectively voting for whichever major candidate you like the least. This only makes sense in one of two situations:

  1. The major candidates are all essentially decent and there is no more significant downside to any given candidate.
  2. The major candidates are so universally terrible that you can’t vote for any of them in good conscience.

If you find yourself in situation 1, congratulations your case is enviable. If you find yourself in situation 2, condolences and I’ve been there a time or two (although it wasn’t competitive in my cases).

So yes, it’s okay to cast a 3rd party vote but please do so responsibly and not when you are knowingly risking an outcome that is obviously worse than a viable if imperfect alternative.

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Harris’s closing argument

Harris offered her closing argument at the Ellipse in Washington DC. Here I have gone through the transcript of her speech trying to extract the main points. At 3000 words and just under 40 minutes Harris delivered more substance in half the time compared to Trump in his closing argument.

Of the 27 thoughts I captured 8 were about her policy ideas (middle class tax cut, cap drug costs, address housing problems, child tax credit, home care for seniors, protect social security, reinstate reproductive choice, immigration), 6 were characterizing Trump, and 13 were framing the election.

Everything in my list is in the order these ideas appeared in her speech. Most ideas are summarized but a few are direct quotes as indicated.

  • “This election is more than just a choice between two parties and two different candidates. It is a choice about whether we have a country rooted in freedom for every American or ruled by chaos and division.”
  • We know who Donald Trump is. He stood here and sent a mob to the Capitol that injured 140 Capitol Police and when he was told they wanted to hang the vice president he said “so what.”
  • He’s focused on his problems and has an enemies list for his second term.
  • “Donald Trump has spent a decade trying to keep the American people divided and afraid of each other. That is who he is. But, America, I am here tonight to say that is not who we are. That is not who we are! That is not who we are!”
  • Democracy doesn’t mean we have to agree in everything but just because we disagree doesn’t make us enemies.
  • It’s time for a new generation of leadership.
  • I know many of you didn’t feel like you know me.
  • I’ve spent most of my career outside of DC so I know not all good ideas come from here.
  • “There’s something about people being treated unfairly or overlooked that, frankly, just gets to me.”
  • “I’ll be honest with you, I’m not perfect. I make mistakes. But here’s what I promise you: I will always listen to you, even if you don’t vote for me. I will always tell you the truth, even if it is difficult to hear. I will work every day to build consensus and reach compromise to get things done.”
  • I’ve been the Vice President but my administration will be different because we are facing different problems from four years ago. We had to end the pandemic and rebuild the economy. Now we need to lower costs.
  • Trump wants to have a 20% tariff which will cost regular Americans thousands of dollars in higher prices.
  • Trump wants to give tax cuts to billionaires but I want to give tax cuts to working class and middle class Americans.
  • I want to cap prescription drug costs.
  • I will fight to help first time home buyers with down payment assistance and work with the private sector and local governments to get more houses built.
  • I want to help parents have the resources to raise their children by increasing the child tax credit.
  • I want to have home care covered by Medicare so families don’t have to deplete their savings to get Medicaid to cover it.
  • I want to protect social security.
  • Trump got Supreme Court Justices to overturn Roe v Wade and now many states have bans that have led to women dying. The government should not be telling women and doctors what to do.
  • We need to solve immigration including securing our border with the bill Donald Trump killed and providing a path to citizenship for productive members of society.
  • “As Commander in Chief, I will make sure America has the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world.”
  • “I will always honor, never denigrate the service and sacrifice of our troops and their families and fulfill our sacred obligation to care for them. I will strengthen, not surrender, America’s global leadership, and I will stand with our friends because I know that our alliances keep American people safe and make America stronger and more secure.”
  • “Here is my pledge to you: I pledge to seek common ground and common sense solutions to make your life better. I am not looking to score political points. I am looking to make progress. I pledge to listen to experts, to those who will be impacted by the decisions I make, and to people who disagree with me. Unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy; He wants to put them in jail, I’ll give them a seat at the table. I pledge to you to approach my work with the joy and optimism that comes from making a difference in people’s lives.  And I pledge to be a president for all Americans, and to always put country above party and self.”
  • I’ve lived the promise of America
  • I see the promise of America in young people, in women fighting for reproductive freedom, in Republicans putting country over party.
  • “America, I know the vast majority of us have so much more in common than what separates us. I know it, and that’s why I am in this race to fight for the people, just like I always have.”
  • “The United States of America is the greatest idea humanity ever devised, a nation big enough to encompass all our dreams, strong enough to withstand any fracture or fissure between us, and fearless enough to imagine a future of possibilities. So America, let us reach for that future. Let us fight for this beautiful country we love.”
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Trump’s closing argument

Trump’s speech at Madison Square Garden on Sunday was billed as his closing argument for the election. I want to try to summarize what he said there (not any of the other content at that marathon event). I went through the transcript of his speech and tried to extract the main points of what he said. At nearly 80 minutes and over 11,000 words I hope I’ve done it justice.

Of the 47 thoughts I captured 6 were about his policy ideas (cut taxes—twice, drill baby drill, deportation, build a defense shield, make flag burning illegal), 10 were characterizing Harris and/or Biden, 5 were framing the election, and 26 were random (we’ve got a great crowd, I love my family, Jim Jordan is great, catching a rocket, etc.)

Everything in my list is in the order these ideas appeared in his speech. Most ideas are summarized but a few are direct quotes as indicated.

  • We’ve got so many people here
  • All our problems will be quickly solved
  • Harris trashed our economy, spiked inflation, and killed manufacturing
  • I’ll cut taxes on tips, overtime, and social security. And today I’m announcing a tax credit for people taking care of loved ones and I’ll make interest on car loans tax deductible.
  • We’re gonna drill baby drill and cut energy prices in half in 1 year
  • I’ll protect America from the immigrant criminals the world is dumping on us.
  • The US is now an occupied country. I’ll launch the largest deportation program ever.
  • Joe Biden goes to bed at 4PM
  • FEMA ran out of money for hurricane relief
  • They tried to kick me off the ballot in Colorado
  • Kamala needs a teleprompter but I don’t
  • We’re practically in World War III but none of that would have happened if I were President.
  • People died in Afghanistan and Kamala wants to start a draft again but I’m the only president who never started a war.
  • Our military has stupid generals who said we can’t win a war with China
  • I ended the pipeline in Europe but Biden ended the pipeline in the US.
  • Kamala is crooked and vicious
  • We have 325,000 missing children
  • Go vote
  • Jim Jordan is great
  • I could be on vacation right now anywhere in the world
  • I watched SpaceX catch a rocket on TV. Russia and China can’t do that.
  • Elon Musk likes to wear a black MAGA hat.
  • “We’re not going to let him go too crazy, Elon, with the oil and gas stuff because Robert F. Kennedy cares more about human beings and health and the environment than anybody…I’m going to let him go wild on medicines.”
  • We call oil and gas liquid gold
  • My wife has a to selling book
  • JD and Usha Vance are both Yale Law School graduates
  • I’ve got a great family
  • Senator Tommy Tuberville is great
  • We’re going to win the House because we have a secret. 
  • Madison Square Garden is great
  • Kamala Harris is a Marxist who wants to defund the police
  • MS-13 are animals
  • Kamala Harris wants to ban fracking and confiscate your guns.
  • “She (Harris) even called for free sex change operations on illegal aliens in detention at taxpayer expense.”
  • Google told me they got more hits on McDonald’s after I visited there than ever before.
  • Kamala tried to turn out military woke.
  • This will be the greatest political comeback of all time.
  • Kamala never called the Border Patrol as the border czar
  • We have endorsements from border patrol, firefighters, and police
  • “I am under investigation more than the great late Alphonse Capone.”
  • We sort of need steel in this country
  • We’re winning with Muslims in Michigan
  • “We will cut your taxes, end inflation, slash your prices, raise your wages, and bring thousands and thousands of factories back to America.”
  • “We will build a massive defense shield all made in the USA. We’re going to build a beautiful dome over our country.”
  • People should get a year in jail if they burn the American flag.
  • Crime in New York is terrible
  • “We will make America powerful again. We will make America wealthy again. We will make America healthy again. We will make America strong again. We will make America proud again. We will make America safe again. And we will make America great again.”
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We have more in common

Kamala Harris loves to say that as Americans “we have a lot more in common than what separates us.” That’s a major breath of fresh air after nearly a decade of “they’re* destroying our country but I’ll fix it up really fast.” (“They” varies depending on the audience and the subject but most often it’s Democrats or immigrants.)

Besides being a much more positive message for America I’d say that Kamala Harris not only recognizes that we have much more in common but she knows what values we share as shown in the fact that almost all her policy proposals are supported by a majority of Americans.

Harris’s policy proposals are much more popular than Trump’s. In fact virtually all of her proposals have majority support.

Both parties can learn from Harris’s rallying cry. Republicans would do well to stop trying to divide the nation and Democrats should recognize that what unites us goes beyond her proposals. While Trump’s proposals are virtually all much less popular that the top ⅓ of Harris’s proposals it is still true that half of Trump’s proposals receive majority support. (That also validates what the Vice President keeps saying about being willing to accept a good idea regardless of where it originates.)

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What actual solutions look like

Kamala Harris is pushing a decidedly capitalist approach to addressing the high cost of housing. She would address the supply side by working to incentivize builders to build more homes with a target of getting 3 million extra units built in her first term.  She would also address the high hurdle of initially getting into the housing market by providing down payment assistance to first time home buyers.

For those who wonder if this is truly possible or what effect this combination of policies might have in the real world, it turns out that Singapore has implemented a similar two part approach to build housing and subsidize first time buyers. The results are that their housing market is stable and 90% of residents own their own homes.

Certainly America is not Singapore so it’s not like we should expect 90% home ownership anytime soon but perhaps we could achieve 90% or higher home ownership among those that actually want to own their home rather than having many people who would love to own their home but have no avenue to get into one.

In case you don’t know, Donald Trump also has a “plan” to deal with the price of housing. When he was asked how he would deal with it he said he would deport immigrants. (Someone has a one-track mind.)

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Helping Where Help Is Needed

Do you know who’s been getting the short end of the economic stick for a long time? Rural America.

Do you know who they’re going to vote for (probably overwhelmingly)? Donald Trump.

Do you know who has a plan to actually help them? Kamala Harris.

Do you know what’s really beautiful about that? While Harris would love to earn the votes of rural Americans, her plans aren’t just a carrot to buy their votes, they are a recognition of what’s good for America. These are things she wants to accomplish even if they don’t vote for her.

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The danger to democracy

To all the defenders of democracy in America who desperately don’t want to see Trump be reelected because he disregards the Constitution, it’s time to recognize that telling voters that Trump is a threat to democracy isn’t effective. We need to recognize that anyone still considering a vote for Trump has already seen all they are willing to see regarding his actions on January 6th or any of his other actions that undermine our constitutional order and have concluded he still might be the best available choice.

Our challenge now and going forward—beyond November, regardless of the outcome—is to offer them a better path forward. That will require that we understand what they want and need and offer real solutions.

There will be the Steve Bannon’s, Josh Hawley’s, Jim Jordan’s, Tucker Carlson’s etc. (it’s a long list) who absolutely don’t care about maintaining democracy in America but the vast majority of people would be happy to keep democracy so long as they feel that they are actually being heard. It’s important that we recognize that as much danger to democracy as another Trump term poses, there is a larger danger (exacerbated by the Trump term we already endured) and that is the danger of voters who see democracy as a system that ignores their very real needs or even undermines their efforts to live happy and productive lives.

No matter how much we fear what Trump could do we need to greet voters by showing them hope for how we can use our system to address their needs and make life better.

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Reagan Republicans endorse Harris

We already had hundreds of staffers from Bush 43, McCain, and Romney endorse Harris but now we add seventeen staffers from the Reagan presidency. More important than who is offering the endorsement is why they give their endorsement:

The time for choosing we face today is a choice between integrity and demagoguery, and the choice must be Harris-Walz. The choice between truth and lies demands support for Harris-Walz. The choice between freedom and suppression of freedoms means support for Harris-Walz.

Having worked for the greatest Republican president of my lifetime they conclude that valuing integrity, truth, and freedom all point to supporting the Harris/Walz ticket.

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Startup tax credit

The expanded tax credit that Kamala Harris is proposing for starting a business illustrates her understanding that it is the economic ground floor that we should be supporting in order to ensure a vibrant and growing economy. The benefits of lowering tax rates for established businesses are negligible (and costly) compared to the benefits that come from increasing the chances of new businesses being successful.

It’s a basic principle of taxation from Adam Smith (The Wealth of Nations) that you take tax revenue from those most able to pay (as opposed to focusing on those least able to wiggle out of them).

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Israeli and Palestinian interests align

I’ve been thinking about the tragic situation in Israel and Gaza. Obviously I mean the current conflict but even going back ever since Israel was established there must be a way to cut this gordian knot. I have always felt that Israel has a right to protect themselves but I don’t think that all of their actions since the terrorist attack by Hamas are justifiable. I also believe that Palestinian civilians shouldn’t have to live perpetually at the mercy of the IDF.

I’m certainly in no position to suggest how to end the present hostilities but as I was lamenting the apparent intractability of the problem it occurred to me that the absolute best thing Israel could do for their long-term security once the current hostilities have cooled would be to put their expertise in settlement building to work in rebuilding Gaza.

I’m confident that if they worked to rebuild the infrastructure that the people of Gaza need and actively work to become partners with their Palestinian neighbors in both Gaza and the West Bank that would be the greatest investment they could make for their future security. They should work to become more sympathetic to the needs of those civilians than Hamas has been.

It’s quite possible that the first step to accomplish such an ambitious change of policy would be to vote out their current leadership but the only people who should object to that are the leaders of Likud.

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